Is Russia’s war against Ukraine a critical juncture for EU enlargement and defense policy? Decisions, policies and constraints

Does Russia’s invasion of Ukraine represent a critical juncture for European Union (EU) enlargement and common security and defence policy? Since February 2022, the geopolitical challenge the war represents has already had significant ramifications for the values and policies of the Union: from neighbourhood policy, to energy, to security and defence. The question is whether the decisions taken by the EU to sanction Russia and to provide political, economic and military support for Ukraine as well as open the door for enlargement will represent a critical juncture. While the common defence policy has been progressing with small steps on the ground and enlargement has been in deadlock, key decisions related to the war against Ukraine have the potential to set these policies on a new path. We define critical juncture as "relatively short periods of time during which there is a substantially heighted probability that agents’ choices will affect the outcome of interest" and will put institutions/policies into a new development path (Capoccia and Kelemen 2007). The paper investigates how far/whether decisions made since the start of the war have set in motion a path-dependent process that substantially increases the likelihood of reforms and a new path in the two core areas of enlargement and defence. Decisions and actions suggest a renewed ambition to take substantial steps towards enlargement and in defence and security. However, the preferences, constraints and divergent constructions of national interest that have led to stagnation in enlargement and defence policies may not have shifted sufficiently to reorient towards a new path. Looking at preference formation at member state level as well as the construction of the EU’s interest at the member state and Union level, we explore whether conditions exist to overcome deadlock in one or both policies.